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©Mortgage Commentary 2010
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite early stock gains and stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are starting the new decade with a sizable rally. The Dow is currently up 133 points while the Nasdaq has gained 32 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over Thursday's morning rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) gave us today's important data when they posted their manufacturing index for December late this morning. They reported a reading of 55.9, meaning that manufacturer sentiment about business conditions was stronger than thought. This normally is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates since it points towards a strengthening manufacturing sector. However, fortunately for mortgage borrower it appears that the data is being ignored this morning.
The fact that we are seeing a positive open for bonds on a day with sizable stock gains and stronger than expected results from an important economic release could indicate that the bond selling over the last two weeks was indeed overkill. Since we are seeing positive movement on what should be a negative day for bonds, I am optimistic that we could see further improvements to mortgage rates in the immediate future.
The Commerce Department will post November's Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.
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